College Football Week #2: Carolina Blue

The University of North Carolina football team plays 17 home games a year and wins none.

At least that’s what it seems like, right? Can’t you imagine mustachioed head coach John Bunting walking onto the field with thousands of fans dressed in sky blue waving slightly effeminate pom-poms, the natural grass on Chapel Hill contrasting nicely with the cornflower blue of the team’s home jerseys and the blue clear of the gas of the autumn sky… just to see Carolina wax her hair completely? Actually, since Bunting replaced Carl Torbush (who replaced Mack Brown) at UNC in 2001, Carolina is 24-36, putting her right up there with the University of Illinois and the University of Arizona, very good company at the hoop. college, but pretty miserable cohorts here in the land of college pigskin.

Those who say North Carolina is a tough place to win college football games (because of the school’s emphasis on basketball) never told Brown, who posted three 10-plus win seasons in his tenure at Carolina. , including straight 10-2 and 11-1 seasons in 1996 and 1997 that landed him the job at the University of Texas. Whether Torbush destroyed the program before Bunting got there or Bunting had a hand in the job, the school hasn’t posted a winning season since Bunting’s freshman year (’01), and if last weekend’s nasty home loss as a favorite against Rutgers is an indication. , things are no better this year in Tar Heel.

This week, Carolina is at home once again (surprise!) against Virginia Tech, coming off a season-opening rout of Northeastern, 38-0, in which (surprise!) Tech blocked a punt, so which is the 109th time that coach Frank Beamer’s 228 games (and his goiter) have had a kick blocked by the team. This may be a bad year by the Hokies’ lofty standards, as the firing of Marcus Vick from the quarterback role left a void that sophomore Sean Glennon, who had never started a college game, will fill. to fill, and the departure of running back Cedric Humes means Branden Ore will mostly have to handle backfield duties himself. But there’s little reason to believe Tech doesn’t have enough in 2006 to handle Carolina, let alone. They defeated the Tar Heels 30-3 last season in Blacksburg (although to be fair, Carolina kept last season’s encounter closer, losing just 27-24).

But here’s the thing: Beamer has no mercy. His teams are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games in which they were favored by 10.5 or more points, 5-0 in their last five against the spread as a road favorite and 7-0 against the spread in overall in his last seven road games. Carolina is better at home (5-1 ATS) than as a favorite, but in the recent past it is 0-4 ATS overall, 0-3 ATS in its last three conference games and 0-3 ATS in its last three games in home (including last week’s loss as a favorite to New Jersey’s best). Really, Rutgers’ loss last week wasn’t nearly as close as the score indicates; the Scarlet Knights led 21-10 midway through the fourth quarter and had the ball, but nearly smothered the win late on. Most troubling was the fact that Rutgers running back Ray Rice rushed for a career-high 201 yards. Ore is slightly better known than Rice (he was a high school All-American) and is one of the most explosive outfield players in the ACC.

I don’t think Carolina can hold off Ore, and I’m not worried the Hokies will disappoint after a great start. I’m looking at that Carolina record as a home dog, but in the end, I’m relying on Beamer’s ruthlessness and taking Virginia Tech on Carolina (-11.5).

Last week: Whoops. Color me fooled by california golden bears. Rarely has a team looked less prepared than Cal last week when he traveled across the country to be humiliated on national television by the Tennessee Volunteers. I’m not ready to anoint the Vols as the favorites in the SEC East just yet; I think the whoops of joy last weekend (which I chose against, by the way) were more a product of Cal’s incredible and utter monotony. But Bears fans should be concerned about a situation of QB which, contrary to my claims last weekend, is not resolved at all by the return of Nate Longshore from injury. Joe Ayoob probably looked better than Longshore, and it even looked like he might lead a ferocious comeback, but then his old inaccuracy reared its head and the game was sealed. Either way, it was a poor pick, and I’m 0-1 young season against the number.