Top 5 Value QBs in 2017
The first thing I need to do in this post is define what I mean by a value quarterback. By value I mean return on investment, that is, the team received a higher performance in the field than it had paid for. These may not necessarily be the names you’re thinking of, but the teams that have them got more than their money’s worth.
Also, I need to go over the criteria that I used to rank quarterbacks. First, I took the best quarterback from each team in 2017, used his cap hit for 2017 from Spotrac, used his passing yards, wins, and TD: INT ratio from nfl.com, and his total QBR from ESPN. I adjusted the wins, the TD: INT and QBR ratio to be on a similar scale to passing yards. That is, I found the average variance of all the QBs between them and multiplied it to scale. From this, I divided the total cap by the average passing yards, the adjusted wins, the adjusted TD: INT ratio, and the adjusted QBR. This gave me the “courage” of a quarterback. Just one FYI, using this scale, the lower the “value” the better, as it is the amount of money the team spent on each adjusted statistic.
Let’s get started, shall we?
5. Trevor Siemian; Value: 313.95
This was a bit surprising. Trevor Siemian didn’t have a good year, but he was helped by a very low-cap hit (as is the case with most of the top 5). Looking at the statistics, Trevor Siemian had the lowest QBR and a TD: INT ratio of 0.85: 1; nor jump. However, he had 2,285 passing yards, which helped his case tremendously. Believe it or not, the Broncos actually got more than they paid for.
4. Jimmy Garoppolo; Value: 231.67
I think a lot of people expected Jimmy Garoppolo here. As the bright spot for the 49ers in 2017, he led them to 5 wins to close out the year, and posted pretty good stats. Although he had few passing yards due to lack of games, his QBR was 80.5. Combine that with a hit to the reserve salary cap and it was a great pick for San Francisco. The future looks very bright for them.
3. Josh McCown; Value: 217.25
Another somewhat surprise here. The old veteran posted decent stats last year for the Jets with nearly 3,000 passing yards and a 2: 1 TD: INT ratio. Leading the Jets, who had arguably the least talented roster in 2017, makes him a player to outperform. easily your pay scale.
2. Jacoby Brissett; Value: 212,40
The second former Patriots backup on that list is also somewhat surprising. He started most of the year for the lowly Colts, and put up semi-respectable numbers for them. What really drives him is the fact that he had the lowest all-time cap hit of any quarterback on this list; in fact, it was the only one under $ 600,000. Unfortunately for Brissett, he most likely won’t get a chance to play much next year with the return of Andrew Luck.
1. Dak Prescott; Value: 170.05
Dak easily crushed the competition in this one. Ranking in the top half of the league in most categories, except for salary, made him an easy number one option. Combine that with the fact that he’s still on his rookie contract and capped at just over $ 635K, and he was by far the best-valued quarterback. I think the most interesting part of this is looking inside the crystal ball and trying to determine how much money it will demand in the future.
To carry out
I think the most important thing I got out of this is that a team can survive with a valuable quarterback. However, it is difficult for a team to be successful most of the time simply with value as a quarterback. Dallas was the only team represented that had a winning record (highest value playoff quarterback was Case Keenum at 6; Value: 313.95). Many quarterbacks we would consider ‘elite’ were in the lower half of this list. The only thing I would like to be able to renew would be the additional income. Tom Brady adds a ton of income to the Patriots, for example, taking more than his salary. That is difficult to quantify, but something to consider for the future. I’d love to see what everyone thought of this in the comments, so do comment on some quarterbacks you thought should be here, other things you want to see, whatever!