Bad Beats / Lucky Wins
As sports bettors, we all seem to remember our “losing streaks” while taking our “lucky wins” for granted. One must remember that for every person who suffers a bad blow, someone else is celebrating a lucky victory. You often hear a bettor talk about having the “right side” or the “wrong side” of a game. After more than two decades in this business, I have resigned myself to the proposition that there are no right or wrong sides, only winning and losing sides. Every Wednesday this football season, I’ll be reminiscing about some of last weekend’s “lost streaks and lucky wins.”
The 2006 college football season opened on Thursday, August 31, and ironically, what could have been more fitting than Temple facing Buffalo? Temple entered the game with an 0-11 season and the losers of 12 straight games dating back to the 2004 season. The Owls also entered a 14-game losing streak on the road, having unbelievably lost those games by an average margin of 32.1 PPG. . Buffalo, a Division IA school since only 1999, was coming off a 1-10 season and had a combined record of just 10-69 since entering the class.
Both schools were also led by new head coaches, each making their head coaching debut. Buffalo, the home team, was a six-point pick, the first time the school had been favored since moving to Division IA. So what happened? The Bulls outscored the Owls the entire game, but failed to score on three trips inside the Temple 20. The game ended regulation with a 3-3 tie, but Buffalo won the game with an 18-yard TD run in overtime. , giving them a 9-3. win and all bettors a ‘push’! So what did you expect?
That same night, ‘under’ bettors on the Toledo/Iowa State game took one in the shorts! The total opened 56 1/2 and closed around 53 or 53 1/2. ISU led 23-15 and looked for a FG that would have put them up 11 midway through the fourth quarter, but the team botched the snap. Naturally, Toledo quickly drove 79 yards in 11 plays (including a 30-yard contest to ISU’s three-yard line on a 4-and-10 play) to make it 23-21. Then, as the bottom players held their collective breath, the Owls converted the two-point play. The lower odds still had a chance when ISU went up 30-23 in the first overtime, if the Cyclones could have stopped the Rockets, but they didn’t. The final score in three extensions was 45-43.
With totals posted on all college football games these days, there are often more than a few games each week. I will mention two from this past Saturday here. The underdogs looked pretty good in the Utah State/Wyoming game, which opened 47 and closed 44. Utah State made only five FDs in the entire game, totaling just 129 yards and the game sat 17-7 Wyoming, entering last fourth. However, the Cowboys threw a 51-yard touchdown pass and followed it up less than a minute later with an interception that was returned for a score. The Cowboys added a late TD and the final 38-7 meant most won short, but surely not all.
Another “under the radar” game was East Carolina at Navy. He opened 53 and closed 50 1/2. Navy scored 403 of their 409 total rushing yards (that’s SIX passing yards!) and finished the game with 35 straight plays. East Carolina had 359 yards and this game could easily have topped the total. Navy missed a 37-yard FG in the first half and fumbled on a first-down play at EC’s 20-yard line in the third quarter. Down the stretch, East Carolina scored a TD with 4:59 left, making it 28-23. The Pirates then went for two and converted, putting the game at 55. However, the EC player was ruled out of bounds and the two-point conversion was voided. Navy drove deep into Carolina territory near the end of the game, but then ran out of time, leaving the final at 51 points. Some overs, some unders, and maybe a few nudges for good luck!
Florida surely didn’t have an easy time with Southern Miss on Saturday. The Gators opened as 23 1/2-point favorites and were bidding at 20 1/2. Southern Miss led 7-0 before Florida tied it on the final play of the first quarter with a 21-yard touchdown pass. Florida led just 14-7 at the half and the Gators led just 21-7 when an interception set up another TD early in the fourth quarter. However, the team missed a two-point try, leaving the match at 20, 27-7. Southern Miss was stopped for downs at Florida 14 with just under nine minutes left in the game before the Gators rallied down the field to go up 34-7. However, bettors in Florida still had “sweat” as Southern Miss returned to Florida 19 before she was stopped again.
Penn State’s Anthony Morelli had a great QB debut for the Nittany Lions (3 TDP) but his game against Akron fell right on the number. PSU opened as a 23 1/2-point favorite when the first numbers were released (about a month ago), but on Saturday, the game fluctuated from 17 1/2 to 18. Akron limited PSU to just 76 rushing yards, but Morelli the good game rescued them. However, trailing 34-9, Akron drove 65 yards to score with only 2:45 left in the game and the extra point made it final, 34-18. The 18-point spread could have been 17 (meaning ALL Akron bettors would have won on Saturday) if the Zips didn’t miss an extra point attempt in the third quarter. That Joe Pa is one lucky guy!
The worst “bad blow” of the entire weekend came on Sunday, when Louisville’s Michael Bush saw his season end when he broke his leg early in the third quarter of the Cardinals’ game against Kentucky. Earlier in the day, Ole Miss led by 127 rushing yards from Green-Ellis (transfer from Indiana) and 268 all-purpose yards from freshman Dexter McCluster, led Memphis 28-17 late in the 4th quarter. Ole Miss opened as a five-point favorite but closed 3 1/2 or even three. When Memphis scored with just over three minutes left to make it 28-23, the 2-point conversion attempt would determine the ATS winner. Memphis converted and the game ended 28-25.
I’ll be back next Wednesday with more “Bad Beats/Lucky Wins” from CFB Week 2 and NFL Week 1. Look for Ness Notes on Friday morning.